(I hope that you're sincerely interested in exploring this topic because I am too and I would be very interested in credible sources suggesting that there is in fact not a consensus among scientists that anthropocentric climate change is happening. I'll answer your concerns to the best of my abilities -- I'm just a student and still learning as I go.)
1. "Likely" means > 66% probability. I provided you a link to an excerpt of the full report (loooooong), and the same likelihood system is used throughout. See their explanation of likelihoods [www.ipcc.ch] (scroll to bottom). It is not the lowest category of confidence they have. I apologize for the lack of context; some of their FAQs [www.ipcc.ch] might provide more digestable, standalone summaries. The full report is a hard read -- I've skimmed through parts of it -- but the data and methodology is there if you care to dig deep enough.
2. I assume the "likely" you're referring to is in regards to surface temperature rise, but that's only one part of climate change. Other changes, such as the sea level increase, are considered "very likely" due to human influences.
3. The thing about climate change is that behavior "likely" to lead to a massive, abrupt change in our only habitat, potentially affecting millions of humans and countless more animals, is not a scenario to be taken lightly. There is ALWAYS room for error, but the best available data that we currently have suggest that we should be taking immediate corrective action. Until and unless better data appears, this seems to the best course of action. If we're later proven wrong due to some unforeseen causes, we'll have to make corrections... but that's the way science has always worked.
4. Heat islands are an example of cherry-picked "mistakes" that disprove ACC. The alleged mistakes (some of which were mistakes, some of which weren't) I've heard about have been corrected in later papers or studies and overall, the consensus still stands: Climate change is happening, and it's partially fueled by humans.
5. Both the wiki pages for climate change and heat islands reiterate my main point: That there is indeed a consensus among qualified scientists (as judged by their peers, mainly) that we are experiencing anthropogenic climate change.
If you have good sources that argue against that, please provide them.
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