রবিবার, ২৭ মে, ২০১২

GCC: Can The Arab Gulf States Form A Political And Economic Union To Rival The EU And Shut Out Iran?

Iran's long conflict with its Arab neighbors in the Persian Gulf region reached a new low recently over a controversial proposal by Saudi Arabia to form a ?union? of sorts with Bahrain.

Since an uprising erupted in Bahrain last year, in tandem with the wider 'Arab Spring' revolution, the royal families of Bahrain and Saudi Arabia have both accused Iran of interfering with Bahrain's internal affairs.

Bahrain is somewhat unusual in the Middle East in that the ruling elite are Sunni Muslims who govern a populace of predominantly Shi'a Muslims. Iran (a Shi'a power) has reportedly assisted their Shi'a compatriots in Bahrain in their protests against the government. In response, Bahrain's powerful Sunni-dominated ally Saudi Arabia dispatched troops to Manama to quell the rebellion in the tiny kingdom and maintain a tense status quo.

Worse yet for Tehran, the contemplated union of Saudi Arabia and Bahrain forms only one part of a potentially much wider alliance -- the political, military and economic integration of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which comprise Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Oman.

The last GCC meeting in Riyadh on May 15 failed to reach a concrete agreement on this ambitious project, but the mere suggestion of the idea of the Saudis and Bahrainis uniting sparked alarm and resentment in Iran as well as among the opposition in Bahrain.

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As Iranian parliament speaker Ali Larijani put it in an interview with the state-run IRNA news agency: "If Bahrain is supposed to be integrated into another country, it must be Iran and not Saudi Arabia."

It?s Always Sunni In The Arab Peninsula

Originally created in 1981 in response to the Islamic Revolution of Ayatollah Khomeini in Iran and the emergence of Saddam Hussein in Iraq, the Sunni-dominated GCC is primarily a loose affiliation of shared economic and political interests. Their economies are heavily dependent on crude oil and energy production, which itself is reliant on foreign migrant labor (particularly from Asia) and a young, rapidly growing labor force.

As for governance, ?the most notorious feature they all share is that they are all dictatorial regimes,? said Dilshod Achilov, professor of political science at East Tennessee State University at Johnson City, Tenn.

Indeed, all six states are ruled by hereditary monarchies, which offer limited political representation.

In addition, the GCC states have a common cultural identity, which they refer to as 'Khaleeji,' said Jamie Chandler, a professor of political science at Hunter College in New York City, and encompasses language, literature, music, cuisine, and dress drawn from Najd and Yemen tribal ancestries.?

?The existing [GCC] has brought several benefits to the Arabian Peninsula since its founding, such as a central patent office, monetary council, and common market,? Chandler added.

However, despite the many similarities among GCC nations, a genuine union would face significant hurdles and would have a difficult time equaling the successes of the European Union as a trade and military alliance.

One of the major obstacles is the lack of consensus among the states on a host of issues. ?In the past, they have not met new threats with a comprehensive, diplomatically driven strategy,? said Chandler. ?Instead, each [member] has responded individually. It will be hard to break this pattern.?

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